Journal of Economic and Social Measurement - Volume 43, issue 3-4

Authors: Dilmaghani, Maryam

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: The present paper mines time-series of job search queries from Google Trends to predict the unemployment rates of Americans between 16 and 24 years of age. The predictive power of Google Trends data is found to be notably higher in forecasting the unemployment rate of Whites compared with Hispanics, as well as African Americans for whom the fit is rather poor. Acknowledging the differences in the opportunity cost of time between the employed and the unemployed, the time-series related to inexpensive online leisure are also retrieved from Google Trends, and the prediction models are augmented by these variables. The analysis …reveals that the inclusion of inexpensive online leisure queries in the models significantly improves the out-of-sample prediction for Hispanics. The implications of this study for the use of big data in forecasting unemployment rates are explored. Show more

Keywords: Google trends, nowcasting, unemployment rate, leisure, time-use

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-180458

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 43, no. 3-4, pp. 119-142, 2018

Authors: Zeli, Alessandro

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: In recent years there has been an increasing need to extend the research potential of micro-level business data by allowing dynamic analyses via panel datasets. One option, using official statistics to build a firm level data panel, is to exploit archival data. However, an endemic problem with this approach is the management of firms transformational events: mergers, splits and spin-offs. This paper considers a way to address this problem. It describes the operative procedures utilized in building an experimental panel starting from firm-level databases available from the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat).

Keywords: Panel building, event of transformation, firm-level data, business register, event register

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-180457

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 43, no. 3-4, pp. 143-167, 2018

Authors: Grazzi, Marco | Piccardo, Chiara | Vergari, Cecilia

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This paper describes the procedures leading to the construction of an integrated dataset for business firms. By merging information from sources such as business registries, financial statements and intellectual property offices, we show how to assemble a panel data that is suited to investigate issues ranging from firm demographics to industrial dynamics, also encompassing the analysis of innovation activities taking place within business firms. We test the validity of the proposed procedures resorting to the virtual universe of Italian limited liability companies, hence covering more than 1 million firms operating in both manufacturing and service sectors. The main purpose of …the paper is to provide a unified set of procedures to help researchers dealing with the vast amount of information available on corporate firms and of ever increasing size. Our work also contributes to ease the replicability of empirical analyses. Show more

Keywords: Firm-level data, firm demography, integrated database, Structural Business Statistics, intellectual property, IP, patents, trademarks

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-180456

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 43, no. 3-4, pp. 169-197, 2018

Authors: Taylor, Gary K. | Medcalfe, Simon | Dugan, Michael T. | Ezell, Robert

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: We estimate the implied discounted rate associated with trades of National Football League (NFL) draft picks that involve draft picks in different years. The NFL conducts an annual draft of draft-eligible college football players. NFL executives use draft charts to determine the value of each draft pick, and we use this draft chart to estimate the implied discount rate of trades combining current and future year draft picks. Using data from the full sample of 61 NFL trades of draft picks containing a combination of current and future year draft picks occurring from 2002 through 2016, we find that the …implied discount rate ranges from - 172.50% to 625.81%. We find that, for the 57 draft day trades, the implied discount rate is positively associated with the head coach’s tenure of the team giving away the future draft pick. Show more

Keywords: National football league, draft picks, draft value, implied discount rate Data Availability: Data available from sources identified in the paper.

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-180455

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 43, no. 3-4, pp. 199-222, 2018