Journal of Economic and Social Measurement - Volume 28, issue 4

Authors: Durand, René

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: The measurement of capital services remains one of the most difficult task for growth accountants despite the breakthrough developments made over the last four decades and, in particular, following the numerous suggestions made to correct the measure of capital services …for changes in capacity utilization. Building upon the work of Berndt and Fuss [1], this paper attempts to contribute to the latter issue. Establishing a parallel with the labour input, the author derives a formal measure for the rate of capacity utilization of capital which is based on observable dual price variables. Show more

Keywords: utilization rate, capacity, capital services, quasi-fixed inputs, growth accounting, productivity

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2003-0209

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 177-185, 2003

Authors: Klein, Lawrence R. | Özmucur, Süleyman

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Many scholars of the Chinese economy have concluded that official estimates of China's GDP growth rate are too high. Journalists have popularized this view, but we disagree. We use a method that examines several strategic indicators that are suggested by …basic social accounting principles and conclude that principal components of these indicators reflect the movement of official estimates of the Chinese economy. This conclusion holds whether one uses annual, quarterly or monthly indicators. It cannot be claimed that we have proved that GDP as officially measured is correct. No one knows the correct estimate; that is the whole point of showing how different such estimates can be, depending on how they are calculated, and this is true the world over. Our estimates survive diagnostic tests, within-sample interpolations and outside-sample extrapolations in monthly, quarterly, and annual time frames. It is reasonable to expect that introduction of quality adjustments will justify higher estimates. Show more

Keywords: China, growth, principal components, econometric models

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2003-0222

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 187-202, 2003

Authors: Balk, Bert M.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: The index number problem is known as that of decomposing an aggregate change into symmetric factors, the number of which usually is two. This paper discusses the generalization to more than two factors, reviews the proposals from the literature, and …adds a simple solution. Show more

Keywords: index number theory, ideal indices, decomposition

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2003-0223

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 203-217, 2003

Authors: Hillinger, Claude

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: The paper discusses conceptual errors in the methodologies for computing the national income and product accounts (NIPAs). Recent changes in methodology introduced by the statistical agencies have not touched some of these deficiencies and in other cases have substituted new …problems for old ones. Unresolved conceptual problems involve the computation of GDP sectors in real terms, the definition of the GDP deflator and real national income, among others. The paper is addressed to: (a.) the producers of NIPA statistic, hoping to motivate them to improve their methods, (b.) the users of these statistics who should know exactly what they are getting and make optimal choices among the available alternatives. The paper also clarifies some general issues pertaining to the construction of price and quantity indexes. Show more

Keywords: economic growth, GDP deflator, price index, quantity index, real GDP, welfare measurement

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2003-0220

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 219-237, 2003

Authors: Jolliffe, Dean

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Answering essentially any question with sample data requires variance estimates and these estimates depend critically on the sample design. The design information necessary to estimate variances for sample statistics from the US Current Population Survey (CPS) is not publicly released …in order to protect respondent confidentiality. To circumvent this problem, the US Census Bureau provides a variance estimation methodology but it is only valid for a few specific point estimates. This paper discusses shortcomings of the Census Bureau methodology and proposes an alternative, general approximation methodology that produces variance estimates for a significantly wider class of statistics, including regression analysis. The proposed approach is based on resorting the data and assigning subsequent observations to synthetic clusters in a manner that creates similarities with the actual CPS sample. The synthetic design approach successfully approximates a baseline for comparison in 34 of the 37 sample estimates considered. Show more

Keywords: sampling variance, Kish design effects, sample design, regional analysis, rural, poverty

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2003-0221

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 239-261, 2003

Authors: Salvo, Joseph J. | Lobo, Arun Peter | Love, Susan P.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: The American Community Survey (ACS) is a continuous measurement survey program designed to replace the census long form sample. While the census sample provides detailed socioeconomic data once a decade, the ACS will provide these data annually using a questionnaire …that largely mirrors the census long form. This paper examines operational data in Bronx County, one of 36 ACS test counties, and finds the ACS superior to the census on two important measures of data quality. First, applying the minimal data requirement for inclusion of a long form in the census sample, ACS questionnaires were significantly more likely than the long forms to meet this threshold. Second, the level of nonresponse to items on the ACS was often one-half the census level. The ACS and census have sharply divergent goals and operational methods that affect data quality. The primary objective of the census is a population count for reapportionment and redistricting; collecting long form information is a secondary goal. In contrast, the primary objective of the ACS is to estimate the characteristics of an area based on answers to all items on the survey. Operationally, the census follows up every nonresponding household, using a pool of minimally trained, temporary workers. In comparison, the ACS follows up only one-in-three nonresponding households, using a permanent cadre of professional interviewers. This results in superior nonresponse follow-up in the ACS, with lower levels of non-sampling error, even in more difficult-to-enumerate high poverty areas of the Bronx. The ACS is to be fully implemented in July 2004, pending Congressional funding. With detailed socioeconomic data available annually from the ACS, the 2010 census would then be able to focus primarily on a population headcount. The paper concludes by discussing operational aspects of the ACS that must be improved, including increasing its visibility, for the survey to be accepted as an integral part of the nation's data collection system. Show more

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2003-0219

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 263-277, 2003