Journal of Economic and Social Measurement - Volume 36, issue 3

Authors: Guzmán, Giselle

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative …to 37 other indicators of inflation expectations – 36 survey measures and the TIPS spread. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three measures of inflation expectations: the Livingston Survey, Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, these low frequency measures appear anachronistic in the modern era of higher frequency and real-time data. I demonstrate that higher frequency measures tend to outperform lower frequency measures in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. Furthermore, Granger Causality tests indicate that the GISI metadata indicator anticipates the inflation rate by 12 months, and out-of-sample forecasts show that the GISI has the lowest forecast error of all the inflation expectations indicators tested. Show more

Keywords: Inflation, expectations, metadata, internet, search, surveys, TIPS, Google, forecasting

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2011-0342

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 36, no. 3, pp. 119-167, 2011

Authors: LeSage, James P. | Pace, R. Kelley | Lam, Nina | Campanella, Richard

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: We use a space-time dynamic panel model to quantify the impact of Hurricane Ike on Texas county-level employment for the immediately affected disaster counties plus neighboring counties. While the hurricane event created a loss of over 314,000 employment in the …44 county disaster area, employment in some counties gained over 24,000 jobs as a result of rebuilding and clean up efforts associated with the disaster. These employment impacts were not accurately reflected in the official government statistics on employment, and we discuss issues pertaining to this. Show more

Keywords: Space-time dynamic panel model, MCMC estimation, dynamic responses

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2011-0344

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 36, no. 3, pp. 169-191, 2011

Authors: Saltzman, Cynthia

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This paper develops an equation to estimate the U.S. aggregate demand for labor that incorporates the impact of the information technology (IT) capital stock and IT outsourcing, as well as the role of employee benefits relative to employee wages over …time. The theoretical starting point is a production function with strategic nonlinearities that does not restrict labor to diminishing marginal productivity over all potential values of the labor input. Specific attention is given to data aggregation issues caused by chain-weighted indexes. Empirical estimation of the equation specification implies that the ratio of employee benefits to wages has the largest negative impact to the demand for labor. Estimation results also imply that there is a direct, short-term negative effect from IT outsourcing, as well as an indirect negative effect through interaction with IT capital. Further empirical investigation suggests that the effect of IT outsourcing turns positive in the longer term through its impact on the stock of capital equipment. Show more

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2011-0343

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 36, no. 3, pp. 193-211, 2011

Authors: Plotzke, Michael R. | Klerman, Jacob Alex | Davern, Michael

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: We compare two different sources of enrollment counts for the Children's Health Insurance Program from 2000–2005. Although it is impossible to know which sources accurately report enrollment, we classify instances where data sources do not agree as an indication that …at least one source reports enrollment inaccurately. We find that 26 states have Medicaid expansion programs and 18 states have stand-alone programs that report similar enrollment counts across the two data sources. Eight states with Medicaid expansion programs and five states with a stand-alone program have substantial inconsistencies that include missing enrollment counts or a disagreement in enrollment counts. Show more

Keywords: Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), Enrollment, Statistical Enrollment Data System (SEDS), Medicaid Statistical Information System (MSIS)

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2011-0345

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 36, no. 3, pp. 213-225, 2011

Authors: Malikov, Emir

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This paper describes a generally successful attempt to replicate results of Davis and Hamilton [3], who look into the issue of price stickiness and test three dominant models of price rigidity using data on wholesale gasoline prices in Philadelphia. There …are some minor discrepancies present between the duplicated results and the ones reported in the original paper, which are mainly attributed to rounding errors and the use of different statistical software in the replication. Access to the authors' original code also allowed me to uncover several minor errors and inconsistencies in Davis and Hamilton [3]. Show more

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2011-0347

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 36, no. 3, pp. 227-235, 2011