Journal of Economic and Social Measurement - Volume 33, issue 4

Authors: Bhar, Ramaprasad | Hamori, Shigeyuki

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This paper explores the dynamic relationship between the yield spread and the growth rate of output when the economic states are driven by a hidden Markov chain. The results for three industrialised countries (USA, UK and Japan) confirm that the …response of output growth rate to yield spread is more effectively captured by this state switching approach than a single state model. The two distinct states are characterised by the levels of growth rates, volatility and risk-aversion. This also allows us to analyze the international co-movements of the economic states between these countries using a non-parametric measure of concordance. We detect strong co-movements of the economic states between USA and Japan over the sample period. We then postulate that the U.S. yield spread might have explanatory power over and above the domestic yield spread in explaining the economic activity in Japan. We are able to confirm this assertion when we extend the model, but only in case Japan. In the case of UK, the domestic yield spread retains the dominant influence. Show more

Keywords: Yield spread, economic growth, hidden markov chain

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2008-0305

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 221-239, 2008

Authors: Feng, Shuaizhang

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Longitudinal matching of Current Population Survey data is of considerable interest to empirical researchers. This paper develops a general method that uses the conditional probabilities (of being correct) to accept or reject a crude match. The assumptions and procedures used …to estimate those probabilities with real data are described in detail. The paper performs the matching of adjacent recent March CPS Supplements, and finds a sharp increase in non-match rates after the 2002 State Children Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) sample expansion. The widely used matching algorithm proposed by Madrian and Lefgren continues to work fine for recent CPS, as it keeps the mismatch rates low in all years. Show more

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2008-0306

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 241-252, 2008

Authors: Porter, Jeremy R. | Purser, Christopher W.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Understanding human development at the international, regional, and national level is essential to the understanding of the needs and wants of vast populations around the world. Since the late 1980's the United Nation's Development Program (UNDP) has published hundreds of …reports on development at a variety of geographic extents. This project aims to apply the United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) to the United States in order to create a sub-national HDI for the measurement of US counties. Due to the inherent spatial methodology in the development of the HDI, this project further introduces the use of geographic information systems tools in hopes of better capturing the results of the development index and employs spatial statistics as a way of identifying clusters of high and low development. The results report high regional, state, and county variation in all of the measures and outcomes associated with the sub-national HDI. Show more

Keywords: Human development, spatial analysis, spatial statistics, US

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2008-0307

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 253-269, 2008

Authors: Klein, Lawrence R. | Kusnnirsky, Fyodor I. | Mercado, Alejandro Delgado

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: In a two-part paper, we apply to the Mexican economy the methodology of forecasting at mixed frequencies developed by Klein and Kushnirsky [2]. We construct two macroeconometric models for Mexico – high frequency, with monthly observations, and low frequency, with …annual observations. Our methodology demonstrates how the high frequency model can be used for periodic adjustments of selected key indicators in the low frequency model. The methodology includes a theoretical foundation, methods for the adjustment of model structures and properties, procedures for achieving mutually consistent solutions, and step-by-step applications. The computational procedures are based on: (a) employment of a loss function in order to force the solution of the low frequency model to come close to the solution of the high frequency model and (b) construction of "exact" joint solutions, with values of key variables in the low frequency model imported from the high frequency model. We illustrate the applications by generating: (a) independent solutions of the high frequency and low frequency models; (b) solutions of the low frequency model with the use of a loss function; and (c) solutions of the low frequency model with key variables such as GDP and the price index imported from the high frequency model. Show more

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2008-0308

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 271-308, 2008

Authors: Gallaher, Michael P. | Morgan, Cynthia L. | Shadbegian, Ronald J.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This paper presents the results of a comprehensive redevelopment and evaluation effort led by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to assess the accuracy of the responses to the Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures (PACE) survey. The data collected by …the PACE survey is important because it is the only comprehensive source of pollution abatement costs and expenditures related to environmental protection in the U.S. manufacturing sector. The PACE Survey has been administered over twenty times since 1973, yet until now, the accuracy of the survey responses has never been formally evaluated. The methods used to evaluate the survey include one-on-one interviews and site visits with manufacturing facilities to develop independent cost estimates which were compared to reported survey responses. Overall this study finds, assuming a reasonable margin of error, that the PACE survey responses reflect actual pollution abatement capital expenditures and operating costs. In addition, these interactions with facilities had a major impact on the design of the 2005 PACE survey and are also discussed in this paper. Show more

Keywords: Pollution abatement costs, survey design, survey evaluation, manufacturing

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2008-0309

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 309-360, 2008