Journal of Economic and Social Measurement - Volume 35, issue 3-4

Authors: McKitrick, Ross | Nierenberg, Nicolas

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: To generate a climate data set, temperature data collected at the Earth's surface must be adjusted to remove non-climatic effects such as urbanization and measurement discontinuities. Some studies have shown that the post-1980 spatial pattern of temperature trends over land …in prominent climate data sets is strongly correlated with the spatial pattern of socioeconomic development, implying that the adjustments are inadequate, leaving a residual warm bias. This evidence has been disputed on three grounds: spatial autocorrelation of the temperature field undermines significance of test results; counterfactual experiments using model-generated data suggest such correlations have an innocuous interpretation; and different satellite covariates yield unstable results. Somewhat surprisingly, these claims have not been put into a coherent framework for the purpose of statistical testing. We combine economic and climatological data sets from various teams with trend estimates from global climate models and we use spatial regressions to test the competing hypotheses. Overall we find that the evidence for contamination of climatic data is robust across numerous data sets, it is not undermined by controlling for spatial autocorrelation, and the patterns are not explained by climate models. Consequently we conclude that important data products used for the analysis of climate change over global land surfaces may be contaminated with socioeconomic patterns related to urbanization and other socioeconomic processes. Research Supported by Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Grant Number 430002. Show more

Keywords: Global warming, data quality, spatial autocorrelation, economic activity

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2010-0336

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 35, no. 3-4, pp. 149-175, 2010

Authors: Kum, Hyunsub | Masterson, Thomas Neal

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This article considers the usefulness of statistical matching using propensity scores in carrying out economic research. We include an application of the procedure to a statistical match between the 2001 Survey of Consumer Finance (SCF) and the 2002 Annual Demographic …Supplement (ADS) of the Current Population Survey (CPS) data sets to demonstrate the procedure and results of the matching. Challenges facing the use of this technique such as the distribution of weights are discussed in the conclusion. Show more

Keywords: Statistical matching, Survey of Consumer Finances, Annual Demographic Supplement, distribution of income and wealth

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2010-0332

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 35, no. 3-4, pp. 177-196, 2010

Authors: Reich, Utz-Peter

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: The yearly growth of an industry is commonly measured by valuing its output and its intermediate consumption at previous year's prices, forming the balance called value added, and subtracting from it previous year's value added. The result may be expressed …as a percentage of previous year's value added– the common usage– or as an amount of value measured in previous year's currency, which is the approach used in this paper. Although superficially equivalent, the two expressions lend themselves to different quantitative results and economic interpretations of an industry's long-term growth. Using the Danish case as an example, the paper demonstrates the lack of coherence of the conventional method when applied to actual figures, and suggests a remedy based on introducing the general price level as a third explicit variable, besides prices and volumes, into the decomposition method. The paper is not an exercise in index numbers, but is addressed to the practitioner of national accounts. Show more

Keywords: Industry growth, national accounts, real value added, volume, aggregation

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2010-0333

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 35, no. 3-4, pp. 197-211, 2010

Authors: Casler, Stephen D.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: The accuracy of index numbers can be understood by evaluating the consistency of their formulas with the sources of change in total expenditure and by examining their ability to estimate actual price and output changes with precision. In terms of …formulas, differences among index numbers can be seen in their treatment of the interaction term, which arises when changes in prices and quantities occur simultaneously over discrete time intervals. This paper evaluates these differences for a number of important indices, including the additive and multiplicative versions of the Fisher. Then, using the growth-rate counterparts of these measures, the accuracy of index numbers is examined in terms of their ability to estimate constant elasticity values for both demand and supply functions. For the indices considered, results show that the additive measures, especially the Additive Fisher, provide superior measurement of price and output growth effects. Show more

Keywords: Index numbers, aggregation, price level, inflation, deflation

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2010-0334

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 35, no. 3-4, pp. 213-230, 2010

Authors: Dietrich, Jason

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Testing for discrimination in mortgage lending requires classifying consumers into treatment and control groups. Classification is quite complicated, because Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, the primary source of data for these analyses, contain information on the ethnicity, race, and …gender for both primary and coapplicants. In addition, applicants have the option of reporting multiple races. Using these detailed data to construct standard groups, such as "Black," "Hispanic," and "White," requires subjective decisions on how to aggregate applications. This study uses a data-driven approach to classify applications, minimizing subjectivity. Using HMDA data, as well as data from a recent examination conducted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, we disaggregated applications into the most basic subsets possible. Our objectives are to better understand the characteristics of applicants, analyze variation in denial rates across underlying subsets of applications, and develop a data-driven classification strategy feasible for fair lending analyses. Show more

Keywords: Discrimination, fair lending, classification

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-2010-0335

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 35, no. 3-4, pp. 231-253, 2010