Journal of Economic and Social Measurement - Volume 39, issue 3

Authors: Rivera Drew, Julia A. | Flood, Sarah | Warren, John Robert

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) are rarely analyzed in a way that takes advantage of the CPS's longitudinal design. This is mainly because of the technical difficulties associated with linking CPS files across months. In this paper, we …describe the method we are using to create unique identifiers for all CPS person and household records from 1989 onward. These identifiers – available along with CPS basic and supplemental data as part of the on-line Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) – make it dramatically easier to use CPS data for longitudinal research across any number of substantive domains. To facilitate the use of these new longitudinal IPUMS-CPS data, we also outline seven different ways that researchers may choose to link CPS person records across months, and we describe the sample sizes and sample retention rates associated with these seven designs. Finally, we discuss a number of unique methodological challenges that researchers will confront when analyzing data from linked CPS files. Show more

Keywords: Data integration, linking, panel data, Current Population Survey

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-140388

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 121-144, 2014

Authors: Phillips, Keith R. | Wang, Jianguo

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This paper examines the potential sources behind statistically significant seasonal patterns in the state level seasonally adjusted Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). We find that these seasonal patterns are likely spurious …and may be due to the pro-rata factors used in benchmarking the states to census regions and national totals. In addition we find that the Henderson 13 filter used by the BLS to smooth the seasonally adjusted state data often makes the data inconsistent with national labor market data. We conclude that the BLS should use seasonally adjusted data when estimating the pro-rata factors used to benchmark states to regional and national totals. Show more

Keywords: Local area unemployment statistics, data revisions, seasonal adjustment, C8

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-140389

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 145-152, 2014

Authors: Ulrick, Shawn W.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Disparity in an outcome between two groups is often measured via the coefficient of a dummy variable in a regression that pools both groups. The dummy is interpreted as the disparity. A casual search of the literature in economics and …other social sciences reviews far too many examples of this method to catalog. Unfortunately, if the impact of one (or more) of the control variables differs between the two groups, the measured disparity (i.e., the coefficient on the group dummy) will be biased. We illustrate and derive this bias. Given the bias, we believe that one is better running separate regressions for each group and then implementing decomposition methods or predicting adjusted gaps in outcome (i.e., predicting the but-for world that would exist if the two groups had identical characteristics). Show more

Keywords: Pooling bias, measuring disparity

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-140390

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 153-161, 2014

Authors: Grossman, Valerie | Mack, Adrienne | Martínez-García, Enrique

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: The Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas aims to standardize and disseminate economic indicators for policy analysis and scholarly work on the role of globalization. Its main purpose is to offer a broad …perspective on a number of global factors affecting the U.S. economy. DGEI indicators are based on a core sample of 40 countries with aggregates for the rest of the world (ex. the U.S.) and by level of development attainment and openness to trade. DGEI indicators currently include real GDP, industrial production (IP), Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), merchandise exports and imports, headline CPI, core CPI (ex. food and energy), PPI/WPI inflation, nominal and real exchange rates, and short-term interest rates. Here we describe our methodology to transform and combine different time series, for temporal and cross-country aggregation, and to highlight the importance of using representative data in international macroeconomics research. Our paper makes a related contribution to the literature by providing a formal assessment of conventional interpolation methods used to adjust the data frequency. A selection of the DGEI-derived global indicators – to be updated monthly – can be accessed at the following URL: http://www.dallasfed.org/institute/dgei/index.cfm. Show more

Keywords: Aggregation methods, interpolation methods, globalization

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-140391

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 163-197, 2014