Journal of Economic and Social Measurement - Volume 24, issue 3-4

Authors: Coomes, Paul A.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: In this paper, I describe a system of comparative economic performance indicators that have been used to guide economic policy in the Louisville metropolitan area. Nine dimensions of metropolitan area performance are identified: geographic, demographic, economic structure, economic performance, cost …of business, cost of living, human capital, physical capital, and quality of life. Hundreds of measures were assembled across these categories for the Louisville metro and its eighteen prime competitor markets. Data were obtained from the standard public databases, but also from trade associations, accounting reports, research studies, and private surveys. This wider approach to metro data organization was rich in content and policy-oriented insights. As comparative measures were assembled for each dimension, qualitative statements were composed that exposed Louisville's strengths and weaknesses. Business and political leaders found the scope, depth, and implications of the measures assembled compelling enough that local economic development policy and institutions have since been realigned to address the newly evident challenges. Show more

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1998-0156

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 24, no. 3-4, pp. 157-179, 1998

Authors: Horrace, William C. | Schmidt, Peter | Witte, Ann Dryden

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Federal regulations recommend that states reimburse the child care costs of recipients of cash assistance and other low-income families, up to the 75th percentile of the market price of care in the relevant local market. The regulations recommend that states …carry out surveys to estimate these 75th percentiles. This estimation problem raises two major statistical issues: (1) picking a sample design that will allow one to estimate the 75th percentiles cheaply, efficiently and equitably; and (2) assessing the sampling variability of the estimates obtained. For the state of Massachusetts, we developed a sampling design that equalized the standard errors of the estimated percentiles across 65 distinct local markets. This design was selected because state administrators felt the public, child care providers and child advocates would find it equitable, thus limiting costly appeals. Estimation of standard errors for the sample 75th percentiles requires estimation of the density of the population at the 75th percentile. We implement and compare a number of parametric and nonparametric methods of density estimation. A kernel estimator appeared to provide the most reasonable estimates. On the basis of the mean integrated squared error criterion,we selected the Epanechnikov kernel and the Shearther-Jones automatic bandwidth selection procedure. Because some of our sample sizes were too small to rely on asymptotics, we also constructed nonparametric confidence intervals using the hypergeometric distribution. For most of our samples, these confidence intervals were similar to those based on the asymptotic standard errors. Substantively, we find wide variation in the price of child care, depending on age of the child, type of care and geographic location. For full-time care, the estimated 75th percentiles ranged from $242 per week for infants in child care centers in Boston to $85 per week for family child care in western Massachusetts. Show more

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1998-0155

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 24, no. 3-4, pp. 181-207, 1998

Authors: Nguyen, Sang V.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: The Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Bureau of the Census, has constructed the ``Manufacturing Plant Ownership Change Database'' (OCD) using plant-level data taken from the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Research Database (LRD). The OCD contains data on all manufacturing establishments that …have experienced ownership change at least once during the period 1963--1992. This is a unique data set which, together with the LRD, can be used to conduct a variety of economic studies that were not possible before. This paper describes how the OCD was constructed and discusses the usefulness of these data in economic research. Show more

Keywords: manufacturing, plant-level data, ownership change, data matching

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1998-0152

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 24, no. 3-4, pp. 209-232, 1998

Authors: Haan, Jan de

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: More than two decades ago Statistics Netherlands started the construction of consumer price indexes excluding tax changes. At the latest index revision, the method has been changed. The present paper gives an elaboration of the principles behind the computation of …the current Netherlands net price index and presents empirical results for the period 1990--1996. A distinction is made between direct tax effects due to changes in taxes levied on consumer goods and services, and indirect effects resulting from changes in taxes levied on intermediate products used in the production processes of enterprises. The indirect effects, estimated with the help of (cumulated) input-output coefficients, appear to be quite small as compared to the direct effects. Show more

Keywords: net price index, consumption taxes, input-output analysis

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1998-0148

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 24, no. 3-4, pp. 233-248, 1998

Authors: Smith, Stanley K. | Swanson, David A.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Net migration has been widely criticized as a theoretical concept and as a measure of population movement. Many of these criticisms are valid: net migration reflects a residual rather than a true migration process, it often masks large gross migration …flows, it cannot account for differences in the characteristics of origin and destination populations, it cannot be used for rates in a probabilistic sense, and it can lead to misspecified causal models and unrealistic population projections. However, we believe there are purposes for which net migration is very useful, especially for analyses of small areas: 1) It provides a summary measure of one component of population change; 2) It can be used when gross migration data are unavailable or unreliable; and 3) It provides a low-cost alternative to the use of gross migration data. In this paper we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of net migration and provide several examples of how it can be useful for population estimation, forecasting, and analysis. Show more

Keywords: Applied demography, migration data, net migration, population estimates and projections, small area analysis

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1998-0150

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 24, no. 3-4, pp. 249-264, 1998

Authors: McCullough, B.D.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Different methods for calculating partial autocorrelation coefficients can produce different estimates, and these differences can be non-trivial. It has long been known that the Yule-Walker equations are particularly susceptible to numerical error, yet it is the most widely used method …in statistical and econometric software. Two other methods, conditional maximum likelihood and Burg's algorithm are known to be more reliable, yet are infrequently used. All three methods are applied to several datasets. A forecasting example shows that a model identified by Yule-Walker can produce inferior forecasts. Show more

Keywords: autocorrelation function, Burg algorithm, Yule-Walker equations

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1998-0151

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 24, no. 3-4, pp. 265-278, 1998

Authors: Coughlin, Cletus C. | Pollard, Patricia S.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates spurred the development of trade-weighted exchange rates (TWEXs). These indexes measure changes in the average foreign exchange value of a currency over time. The construction of a TWEX index …requires numerous decisions. Producers of TWEXs are revisiting many of their construction decisions because, with the advent of the single currency in Europe, all TWEXs will have to be modified. In addition, countries adopting the single currency may find it useful to develop their own TWEXs, similar to those that exist for regions within the United States. All commonly-used TWEXs are based on either a Laspeyres or Paasche price index. In the present paper we argue that producers of TWEXs should consider using the chain approach for the construction of their indexes. Our argument focuses on an issue that affects TWEXs based on either Laspeyres or Paasche price indexes -- the choice of base period. We illustrate this problem and show how it leads to different measures of exchange rate changes. A chain index, which links together the exchange rates and trade weights from year-to-year, eliminates the need for a base period. Show more

Keywords: trade-weighted exchange rates, chain indexes

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1998-0153

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 24, no. 3-4, pp. 279-294, 1998

Authors: Hough Jr., George C. | Swanson, David

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Under the auspices of the ``American Community Survey'' (ACS), Multnomah County, Oregon was selected as a test site in 1996 for the ``Continuous Measurement'' (CM) option being considered for Census 2000 and beyond. The National Research Council recommended against substituting …CM for the long form in the 2000 census because there were too many unanswered questions for which research was needed. This paper is part of the initiation of an empirically-based discussion of CM's capability to provide small area data comparable in quality to that provided by the census long form, the current gold standard for detailed, small area data. We compare mail return rates of the 1996 ACS to the 1990 mail return rates of the census long form for tracts in the test site and find that overall return rates are virtually the same -- 69 percent. However, ACS return rates are higher than those of the 1990 long form in that quartile of the tracts where the return rates for the long form were the lowest and lower in that quartile of the tracts where the long form rates were the highest. Taking into account the effect of ``regression-to-the-mean,'' the ACS return rates are higher than what one would expect under this artifact, an encouraging finding. Further comparisons between the ACS and traditional census data can serve a useful role not only in understanding ACS but also in providing new insights on traditional census products. Show more

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1998-0154

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 24, no. 3-4, pp. 295-308, 1998