Journal of Economic and Social Measurement - Volume 22, issue 2

Authors: Fleming, Martin | Jordan, John S. | Lang, Kathleen M.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: This paper reviews the performance of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) over the period 1986 through 1991. Forecasts published jointly by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research are decomposed into two components, pure …prediction error and data measurement error. The results show that more than two-thirds of observed forecast error could be attributed to data measurement error over all forecast horizons examined, including those as brief as one quarter ahead. Outdated estimation methods for large portions of GNP, namely PCE and S&L, are identified as potential driving forces behind the problems caused by measurement error. Show more

Keywords: Prediction error, consensus forecasts, business cycles

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1996-22201

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 89-102, 1996

Authors: Paulin, Geoffrey D. | Ferraro, David L.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Income data in the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey are subject to nonresponse. Model-based imputation is being explored to diminish missing data problems. Since income is an important variable in predicting expenditures, might expenditures be useful in predicting incomes? Incomes from …wages and salaries and self-employment are modeled. These results are compared to regressions on demographic characteristics alone. Although each expenditure category adds to the predictive power of the model, total expenditures adds the most. Show more

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1996-22202

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 103-128, 1996

Authors: Hogan, Timothy D. | Steinnes, Donald N.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Using comparable definitions and two statewide surveys, it is estimated that the elderly seasonal migration rate is higher in Arizona during the summer (10.1%) than it is in Minnesota during the winter (9.2%). More attention is given to the Arizona …seasonal migrants, or Sunbirds, since they have not been studied as much as Snowbirds. While Sunbirds are similar in many ways to Snowbirds, they tend to be older. This age difference, along with a tendency for both types of seasonal migrants to have been recent permanent migrants, suggests that permanent migration may be a precursor to seasonal migration. Show more

Keywords: Seasonal migration, migration linkages, demographics

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1996-22203

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 129-139, 1996

Authors: Corder, Larry S. | Manton, Kenneth G.

Article Type: Research Article

Abstract: Longitudinal changes in the characteristics of the nursing home population as represented in the most recent National Nursing Home Surveys (NNHS) were analyzed (1977 and 1985). This period is characterized by major changes in the delivery and financing of long …term care services. These surveys of nursing home residents, staff, and facilities were used to examine aged nursing home resident's characteristics using the Grade of Membership (GoM) model. GoM searches for regularities both in profiles of the variables and in the grouping of cases [12]. Seven profiles explained individual variation in the health and functioning of the elderly (65+) nursing home population over time. Age heterogeneity in nursing home residents, and age-related clustering of medical conditions and functional status, were found. In the 1985 NNHS, a younger sick group and a young male group emerge for the first time as identifiable nursing home patient groups. Show more

DOI: 10.3233/JEM-1996-22204

Citation: Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 141-160, 1996