Artificial intelligence based prediction models: sales forecasting application in automotive aftermarket

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Türkbayrağí, Mert Girayhan^{; *} | Dogu, Elif | Esra Albayrak, Y.

Affiliations: Galatasaray University/Graduate School of Scienceand Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey

Correspondence: [*] Corresponding author. Mert Girayhan Türkbayrağí. E-mail: mert.turkbayragi@gmail.com.

Abstract: Automotive aftermarket industry is possessed of a wide product portfolio range which is in the 4th rank by its worldwide trade volume. The demand characteristic of automotive aftermarket parts is volatile and uncertain. Nevertheless, the cause-and-effect relationship of automotive aftermarket industry has not been defined obviously heretofore. These conditions bring automotive aftermarket sales forecasting into a challenging process. This paper is composed to determine the relevant external factors for automotive aftermarket sales based on expert reviews and to propose a sales forecasting model for automotive aftermarket industry. Since computational intelligence techniques yield a framework to focus on predictive analytics and prescriptive analytics, an artificial neural network model constructed for Turkey automotive aftermarket industry. Artificial intelligence is a subset of computational intelligence that focused on problems which have complex and nonlinear relationships. The data which have complex and nonlinear relationships could be modelled successfully even though incomplete data in case of implementation of appropriate model. The proposed ANN model for sales forecast is compared with multiple linear regression and revealed a higher prediction performance.

Keywords: Sales forecasting, automotive aftermarket, artificial neural network, ANN, predictive analytics

DOI: 10.3233/JIFS-219187

Journal: Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, vol. 42, no. 1, pp. 213-225, 2022