Affiliations: College of Business Planning, Chongqing Technology and Business University, Chongqing, China
Correspondence:
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Corresponding author. Bo Zeng, College of Business Planning, Chongqing Technology and Business
University, Chongqing 400067, China. Tel./Fax: +86 02362768039; E-mail: zbljh2@163.com.
Abstract: In recent years, the consumption of natural gas in China has dramatically increased. The consumption of natural gas in 2013 is six times as much as that in 2003. Hence, reasonably forecasting the supply and demand of China’s natural gas has an important significance for Chinese government to formulate energy policy. In this paper, a novel grey model named TPGM(1,1) is proposed to simulate and forecast the supply and demand of natural gas in China. Firstly, the unbiased parameter estimation method of TPGM(1,1) was studied by Cramer’s rule; secondly the optimal method of the initial value of TPGM(1,1) was deduced; thirdly, the TPGM(1,1) for the output and consumption of natural gas in China was then built, and simulated and predicted results were compared with those of other models using known data. Finally, the supply and demand of natural gas in China during 2015-2020 are then forecasted by the novel model, and the results show 67.61 percent of the consumption of natural gas in 2020 will depend on foreign imports due to a surge in demand for natural gas in China.
Keywords: Grey prediction model, parameter estimation, TPGM(1,1) model, supply and demand conditions of natural gas in China
