Effects of fertility and international migration on changing age composition in Canada

Article type: Research Article

Authors: George, M.V. | Nault, F. | Romaniuc, A.

Affiliations: Demography Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0T6, Canada

Abstract: Canada is facing the problem of a rapidly aging population. This paper analyses the prospects for age distribution in Canada through 2036, based on today's age structure and expected trends in fertility and international migration. Simulating these two demographic components at extreme levels shows that tomorrow's aging is already built into the current age distribution, which is heavily marked by the post-war baby boom and the following persistent baby bust, and that neither fertility nor immigration can be seen as effective adjustment mechanisms for the changing age composition of Canada. Population projections using the component method are applied along with an age-specific growth–rate analysis.

DOI: 10.3233/SJU-1991-8102

Journal: Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 13-24, 1991