Future emissions to air in Norway: Forecasts based on the macroeconomic Model MSG-4E

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Alfsen, Knut H.¹ | Glomsrød, Solveig²

Note: [1] Knut H. Alfsen has a Cand. Real. and Dr. Scient. degree in physics from the University of Oslo (from 1978 and 1980, respectively). He worked as a physicist at the University of Oslo, and for one year at ESTEC/European Space Agency in the Netherlands, until 1983 when he was engaged as senior research fellow in the Division of Resource and Environment Analyses at the Central Bureau of Statistics of Norway. His main fields of interest are energy and environmental economics.

Note: [2] Solveig Glomsrød is an economist working as research fellow in the Division of Resource and Environment Analyses at Central Burea of Statistics of Norway where she is employed since seven years, working with resource forecasting and impacts of environmental policies.

Abstract: Environmental problems, and in particular air pollution, are linked to economic activities. General economic equilibrium models are therefore adequate tools in forecasting future emissions to air, and in analysing effects and costs associated with control measures. Due to uncertain forecasts, care must be taken in interpreting the results. Rather than giving the exact number of tons emitted in a future year, the forecasts serve as indicators on whether or not expected economic development is likely to produce unacceptably high stresses on the environment. If regulatory measures are introduced as a consequence of such signals, the forecasts, hopefully, turn out to be wrong. Thus, it is important that emission forecasts are updated as an integral part of the general planning process.

DOI: 10.3233/SJU-1987-4301

Journal: Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 219-236, 1987