Affiliations: [a] University of Joensuu, Finland | [b] Statistics Netherlands, Voorburg, the Netherlands | [c] Democast, Dreumel, the Netherlands | [d] University of Oslo, Norway | [e] Statistics Finland, Helsinki, Finland | [f] Statistics Norway, Oslo, Norway
Correspondence:
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Corresponding author: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, PO Box 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway. Tel.: +47 22 85 51 28; Fax: +47 22 85 50 35; E-mail: nico.keilman@econ.uio.no.
Abstract: We present results of a probabilistic forecast for the population in 18 European countries, to 2050. Other forecasts have recently predicted a falling population size for those countries. However, there are reasons to expect higher immigration and lower mortality than the earlier forecasts did. Hence, we find that population decline is postponed in our forecast. The forecast also alerts us to the fact that many demographic developments cannot be forecasted accurately. Although ageing is certain, the extent to which this will occur is difficult to predict accurately. The number of elderly persons is very uncertain in the long run. This has major implications for all European countries in which reforms for pension systems and the provision of health care for the elderly are considered. The reforms must be robust against unexpected demographic developments.
Keywords: Population forecast, Europe, uncertainty, ageing
