A probabilistic epidemiological model

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Switkay, Hal M.

Affiliations: Goldey-Beacom College, Wilmington, DE 19808, USA

Correspondence: [*] Corresponding author: Goldey-Beacom College, Wilmington, DE 19808, USA. E-mail: switkay@gbc.edu.

Abstract: We construct a model for the progress of the 2020 coronavirus epidemic in the United States of America, using probabilistic methods rather than the traditional compartmental model. We employ the generalized beta family of distributions, including those supported on bounded intervals and those supported on semi-infinite intervals. We compare the best-fit distributions for daily new cases and daily new deaths in America to the corresponding distributions for United Kingdom, Spain, and Italy. We explore how such a model might be justified theoretically in comparison to the apparently more natural compartmental model. We compare forecasts based on these models to observations, and find the forecasts useful in predicting total pandemic deaths.

Keywords: Epidemic, model, probabilistic, generalized beta, compartmental, coronavirus

DOI: 10.3233/MAS-210511

Journal: Model Assisted Statistics and Applications, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 15-23, 2021