Integrated Model for Technology Assessment and Expected Evolution: A Case Study in the Chilean Mining Industry

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Nikulin, Christopher | Graziosi, Serena | Cascini, Gaetano | Stegmaier, Raul

Affiliations: Department of Mechanics, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy | Department Industrial Engineering, Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Chile

Note: [] Corresponding author. Email: christopher.nikulin@mail.polimi.it Tel: (+39)-02-2399-8469

Abstract: In this paper a 9-step method is proposed to study the evolution of technical systems. Merging the potential of TRIZ and patent analysis, a structured approach is defined to properly analyse the state of the art of a technology and retrieve useful insights to identify and structure new development strategies. Past-present evolutionary dynamics are quantitatively described, while indications for new possible development scenarios can be also extrapolated. Starting from a detailed breakdown of the technology under analysis, a list of evaluation parameters is defined to classify inventions and thus monitor the technology advancements by means of the TRIZ Laws of Engineering Systems Evolution. The aim of this study is to foster the diffusion of more reliable and systematic approaches to innovation especially in those industrial sectors where high risks and investment costs tend to favour short-term technological advances rather than long-term ones. Two case studies were developed within the context of the mining industry. Specifically, the study is part of a research project founded by the Chilean Economic Development Agency (CORFO) whose objective is to support companies of the Atacama region, in the identification of new technological opportunities to renew their production process.

Keywords: Technological Forecasting, Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ), Network of Evolutionary Trends (NET)

DOI: 10.3233/jid-2013-0013

Journal: Journal of Integrated Design and Process Science, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 53-80, 2013