Affiliations: [a]
Center for Community Health Integration, School of Medicine, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA
| [b]
Department of Anthropology, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA
| [c]
Institute of European and American Studies, Academia Sinica, New Taipei, Taiwan
Correspondence:
[*]
Correspondence to: John P. Ansah, Center for Community Health Integration, Case Western Reserve University, School of Medicine, 11000 Cedar Ave., Suite 402, Cleveland, OH 44106-7136, USA. E-mail: jxp992@case.edu.
Abstract: Background:The association between COVID-19 infection and the onset of dementia among adults 65 years and older has the potential to increase the burden of dementia worldwide significantly. Our research, which focuses on understanding the likely increase in the burden of dementia due to COVID-19 infection in the USA, has crucial public policy implications. By providing these insights, we aim to empower policymakers, healthcare professionals, researchers, and public health officials to make informed decisions and plan for the future. Objective:Project the prevalence of dementia in the United States while accounting for the impact of COVID-19 infection on the onset of dementia. Methods:A dynamic multi-state population model was developed. The model was initialized with USA demographic data and estimates of age, gender, and race-specific transition rates from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). Results:The projected increase in the burden of dementia among Americans 65 years and older is a staggering 14.838 million by 2050. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we anticipate an additional 265,000 to 677,000 older adults 65 years and older will be affected by dementia. This will escalate the burden of dementia to a potential 15.103 million to 15.515 million by 2050, a significant human toll that we must be prepared for. Conclusions:The projected dementia numbers underscore the urgent need for policy and intervention in social care services and healthcare needs planning. This includes providing robust support systems for caregivers and ensuring the healthcare staff is adequately trained to meet the healthcare needs of dementia patients and their families.
Keywords: Alzheimer’s diseases, dementia, multi-state population model, race and ethnicity, system dynamics
