Time Series Analysis Model for Particulate Matter of Air Pollution Data in Dhaka City

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Rahman, Md. Arafat | Hossain, M. Amir

Affiliations: ISRT, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh

Note: [] Corresponding author: E-mail: arahman4@isrt.ac.bd

Abstract: Time series analysis and forecasting has become an important tool in many applications in the field of air pollution and environmental management. ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models form an important part of the Box-Jenkins approach to time series data modelling. In this study Box-Jenkins method was used to construct ARIMA model for monthly particulate matter of air pollution data with a total of 108 readings from Dhaka meteorological station for the period 2002-2010. An attempt has been made to construct an ARIMA (0, 0, 2) (2, 1, 0)_{12} model in a systematic and scientific manner. Based on the fitted ARIMA model, monthly particulate matter of air pollution for further two years has been predicted. It will help to make better decision for controlling air pollution in Dhaka city.

Keywords: Time series analysis, particulate matter, air pollution, forecasting, ARIMA model

Journal: Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 63-69, 2012