Prediction of Rain in Bihar, India, Based on Historical Rain Data

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Sharan, Anand M.^a

Affiliations: [a] Faculty of Engineering, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John’s, Newfoundland, Canada A1B 3X5, asharan@mun.ca

Abstract: In this work the prediction of rain is based on average of three methods. In these methods, historical rain data of Bihar are selected for projection. These methods take into account the trends in rain pattern also. The predicted results are quite close to the actual rain data for the year 2013. Based on this success, the forecast was made in December 2013 for the year 2014. This prediction was checked on September 1, 2014, and it was found that the predicted and the actual rainfall data for June, July and August of 2014 were close. The advantage of this approach is that it gives farmers far more time than they get presently when preliminary predictions are announced by India Meteorological Department in April for each monsoon.

Keywords: Monsoon rain prediction, annual rainfall, rainfall frequency spectrum, El Nino and La Nina influence on rainfall, drought and famine, crop failure

DOI: 10.3233/AJW-150007

Journal: Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 59-64, 2015