Analysis of the spatial distribution of under-5 mortality rate in local areas of South Africa

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Shiferaw, Yegnanew A.

Affiliations: Department of Statistics, University of Johannesburg, PO Box 524, Johannesburg 2006, South Africa | E-mail: yegnanews@uj.ac.za

Correspondence: [*] Corresponding author: Department of Statistics, University of Johannesburg, PO Box 524, Johannesburg 2006, South Africa. E-mail: yegnanews@uj.ac.za.

Abstract: Policymakers and healthcare service managers demand reliable, accurate and disaggregated information about child deaths at the sub-national level to plan and monitor healthcare service delivery and health outcomes. In support of this demand, this research aimed at providing reliable local municipality estimates of the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) in South Africa. The paper used a small area estimation approach to improve the precision of local municipality estimates of U5MR by linking data from the 2016 Community Survey (CS) and the 2011 Population Census (PC). The diagnostic measures and validation of the reliability of the results showed that the local municipality estimates of U5MR produced by small area estimation are more efficient and precise than direct estimates of U5MR based only on the CS data. Further, accurate and cost-effective local municipality estimates of U5MR were produced without the need for more resources through combining the available data sources. This was achievable since the research did not require a separate survey for this purpose. The results can be used to monitor U5MR at the local level in South Africa since they link directly with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Keywords: Under-5 mortality, small area estimation, Fay-Herriot model, community survey, population census

DOI: 10.3233/SJI-200650

Journal: Statistical Journal of the IAOS, vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 1161-1173, 2020