Affiliations: Centre for Business Tendency Studies, Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Slavyanskaya Sq., Bld. 4/2, Moscow, 101000, Russia | Tel.: +7 495 772 9590*33606; E-mail: ilola@hse.ru
Note: [9] Maximum value of correlation coefficient. Negative value indicates counter-cyclic forward-oriented properties of the time series.
Note: [10] Values highlighted in bold font can be used at the next selection stage.
Note: [12] Maximum value of correlation coefficient. Negative value indicates counter-cyclic forward-oriented properties of the time series.
Note: [13] Values highlighted in bold font can be used at the next selection stage.
Abstract: This article proposes some analytical and methodological solutions to study the dynamics of retail business development, based on the results of business tendencies surveys. The following business conditions indicators were developed and tested: Retail Market Indicator (RMI) and Retail Business Potential Indicator (RBPI). The proposed indicators are aimed at quickly identifying current tendencies in the retail business, which, together with the quantitative parameters of the market, increase the scale of representation of the actual and expected phase of economic development of trade and the associated consumer market. The technique was tested to measure the business conditions of Russian organizations in the retail business, over the period 2005–2018. In this study, it was shown that RMI and RBPI are aggregated characteristics of business conditions that can warn about turning points of the business cycle. In addition, based on the decomposition of their dynamics, a tracer of cyclical profiles of indicators, which increases the visualization of industry tendencies, was built and the development of entrepreneurship at different stages of the business cycle was analysed. The results of this study show that the proposed methodology and statistical tools can give a significant contribution to the improvement of the existing techniques on industrial processes’ monitoring.
Keywords: Small entrepreneurship, business conditions, business sentiment, retail market, composite indicators, cycle tracer, business conditions surveys
