Fertility in "post-demographic transition" countries

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Soares, Rodrigo R.

Affiliations: University of Maryland and Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro

Note: [] Department of Economics, University of Maryland, 3105 Tydings Hall, College Park MD 20742, USA. Tel.: +1 301 405 3266; Fax: +1 301 405 3542; E-mail: soares@econ.umd.edu

Abstract: The extremely low fertility levels observed in some countries are the culmination of the process of social change that started with the demographic transition a few hundred years ago. This article argues that, as in the transition itself, the behavior of fertility today is closely related to changes in mortality. We briefly discuss the history of human population, and analyze the recent behavior of mortality and fertility across countries, in order to show that these two variables have remained intimately linked throughout the recent demographic history. We then argue that both economic and evolutionary theories suggest that this should indeed be the case: individuals should respond to reductions in mortality rates by reducing the optimal size of families. Only by understanding the determinants of the current behavior of fertility researchers and policy makers will be able to forecast its future trend and design adequate policies to deal with the problems at hand.

Journal: Pharmaceuticals, Policy and Law, vol. 9, no. 1-2, pp. 15-27, 2007