System and statistical approach of analysis and forecasting terrorist activity

Issue title: Statistical Estimations in Complex Problems

Guest editors: Alexander Topchishvili

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Dolenko, Galyna^{; *} | Lobach, Sviatoslav

Affiliations: Department of System Analysis and Decision Making Theory, Faculty of Cybernetics, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine | Minneapolis, USA

Correspondence: [*] Corresponding author: Galyna Dolenko, Department of System Analysis and Decision Making Theory, Faculty of Cybernetics, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 2/6, Akad. Glushkova Ave., Kyiv 03127, Ukraine. Tel.: +38 050 3571503; E-mail: galinadolenko2006@yandex.ru.

Abstract: We considered system-analytical and statistical approach for solving the problem of analysis and predicting terrorist attacks. Intervals between attacks have been the objectives of our research. This study can help us to predict next terrorist activities and consider counter-terrorism action plan. Proposed methodology was illustrated on the examples of terrorist activities in Afghanistan, Algeria, India, Iraq and the USA. We used for calculations statistical data for the time frame 2000–2010.

Keywords: System analysis, applied statistics, terrorist activity problems, forecasting

DOI: 10.3233/MAS-140298

Journal: Model Assisted Statistics and Applications, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 267-275, 2014