Affiliations: [a] Central China Regional Headquarters of Powerchina Road-Bridge Group Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou, China
| [b] Southeast Reginal Headquarters of Powerchina Road-Bridge Group Co., Ltd., Hangzhou, China
| [c] Western Reginal Headquarters of Powerchina Road-Bridge Group Co., Ltd., Chengdu, China
| [d] Central China Regional Headquarters of Powerchina Road-Bridge Group Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou, China
| [e] School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, China
Correspondence:
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Corresponding author. Dongke Li, School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China. E-mail: lidongke0617@163.com.
Abstract: To comprehensively and objectively evaluate the actual safety condition in road and bridge engineering construction, the road and bridge engineering construction safety risk evaluation index system is constructed combined with the factors induced by emergencies in the road and bridge engineering construction process. Aiming at the dynamic uncertainty of road and bridge construction safety risk, using Fuzzy Set Theory and an improved similar aggregation method to determine the prior probabilities and conditional probabilities of network nodes, and then selecting the transition probabilities of nodes through expert opinions and incident reports, leading to the development of a dynamic evaluation model for safety risks in road and bridge engineering construction based on Fuzzy Dynamic Bayesian Network, this model can make the construction safety risk prediction result accurately. Taking the Hebi City Provincial Highway 304 reconstruction project as an example for analysis, the results indicate that the model can accurately predict the probability of changes in safety risks in road and bridge engineering construction. Additionally, it can identify critical risk factors and provide crucial supporting information for decision-makers to optimize risk management strategies.
Keywords: Road and bridge engineering, similar aggregation method, Dynamic Bayesian Network, risk analysis
