Affiliations: [a] School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
| [b]
Jiangsu Provincial Land Survey and Planning Institute, Nanjing, China
| [c] School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China
Correspondence:
[*]
Corresponding author. Shenmin Wang, School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China. E-mail: wsmnju@126.com.
Abstract: The focus of attention has shifted to land use and land cover changes as a result of the world’s fast urbanisation, and logical planning of urban land resources depends greatly on the forecast and analysis of these changes. In order to more precisely forecast and assess patterns of land use change, the study suggests a grey Markov land pattern analysis and prediction model that incorporates social aspects. The study builds a land pattern analysis and prediction model using a major city as the research object. The outcomes demonstrated the high accuracy and reliability of the grey Markov land pattern analysis and prediction model incorporating social factors, which can more accurately reflect and predict the land use pattern of the study area, with an average relative error of less than 0.01, an accuracy of more than 98%, and an overall fit that has increased by more than 3%. The overall pattern of change is very consistent with the reality. The model predicts that the main trend of future land use in the study area is the continued expansion of urban land such as industrial land, land for transport facilities and land for settlements, while non-construction land such as agricultural land and forest land will continue to decrease. The optimized land pattern analysis and prediction model of the study has a good application environment.
Keywords: Grey system theory, land use change, prediction model, socio-economic factors
