Affiliations: School of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Science and Technology, Hebei, People’s Republic of China
Correspondence:
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Corresponding author. Hong Chen, Hebei University of Science and Technology, China. E-mail: chenhong@stu.hebust.edu.cn.
Abstract: During an emergency, the negative Internet public opinion in colleges and universities, especially the negative endogenous public opinion, will have a serious impact on the reputation of colleges and universities. It is of great significance to find out the negative influencing factors of endogenous public opinion and explore the mechanism of public opinion dissemination for resolving the crisis of public opinion in universities. The existing research does not distinguish the endogenous Internet public opinion in colleges and universities from the general Internet public opinion in colleges and universities, and the SIR model adopted fails to fully reflect the difference between students and other dissemination subjects of endogenous public opinion in campus. In addition, various research methods and models currently used focus on the static expression of dissemination results, and the explanation of results is insufficient. The reason is that they do not well express the dynamic interaction mechanism between influencing factors and the dynamic conversion rate between roles. In this study, based on the improved infectious disease model and system dynamics theory, AnyLogic software is used to simulate the improved SNIDR model of infectious disease, to analyze the sensitivity of school supervision, school intervention, school response time and information transparency and to study the dynamic conversion rate between different roles. The SNIDR model effectively simulates the process of endogenous public opinion dissemination in colleges and universities after emergencies. The results show that, what has the greatest impact on the dissemination of public opinion is the school’s supervision and intervention efforts, which can suppress the dissemination from the source. Information transparency is an auxiliary variable and cannot function independently. During the dissemination period, the timelier the school responds, the faster the spreaders will drop to zero, and the better it will be to control the secondary dissemination of public opinion.
Keywords: SNIDR model, governance strategies, internet public opinion, dissemination
mechanism, emergency
