An application for the earthquake spectral and source parameters and prediction using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system and machine learning

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Rana, Anurag^a | Vaidya, Pankaj^a | Kautish, Sandeep^b | Kumar, Manoj^{c; d; *} | Khaitan, Supriya^e

Affiliations: [a] Shoolini University | [b] LBEF Campus Kathmandu Nepal | [c] University of Wollongong in Dubai | [d] Middle East University, Jordan | [e] Pillai College of Engineering, New Panvel

Correspondence: [*] Corresponding author. Manoj Kumar. E-mails: manojkumar@uowdubai.ac.ae, and anuragrana.anu@gmail.com.

Abstract: Parameters related to earthquake origins can be broken down into two broad classes: source location and source dimension. Scientists use distance curves versus average slowness to approximate the epicentre of an earthquake. The shape of curves is the complex function to the epicentral distance, the geological structures of Earth, and the path taken by seismic waves. Brune’s model for source is fitted to the measured seismic wave’s displacement spectrum in order to estimate the source’s size by optimising spectral parameters. The use of ANFIS to determine earthquake magnitude has the potential to significantly alter the playing field. ANFIS can learn like a person using only the data that has already been collected, which improves predictions without requiring elaborate infrastructure. For this investigation’s FIS development, we used a machine with Python 3x running on a core i5 from the 11th generation and an NVIDIA GEFORCE RTX 3050ti GPU processor. Moreover, the research demonstrates that presuming a large number of inputs to the membership function is not necessarily the best option. The quality of inferences generated from data might vary greatly depending on how that data is organised. Subtractive clustering, which does not necessitate any type of normalisation, can be used for prediction of earthquakes magnitude with a high degree of accuracy. This study has the potential to improve our ability to foresee quakes larger than magnitude 5. A solution is not promised to the practitioner, but the research is expected to lead in the right direction. Using Brune’s source model and high cut-off frequency factor, this article suggests using machine learning techniques and a Brune Based Application (BBA) in Python. Application accept input in the Sesame American Standard Code for Information Interchange Format (SAF). An application calculates the spectral level of low frequency displacement (Ω0), the corner frequency at which spectrum decays with a rate of 2(fc), the cut-off frequency at which spectrum again decays (fmax), and the rate of decay above fmax on its own (N). Seismic moment, stress drop, source dimension, etc. have all been estimated using spectral characteristics, and scaling laws. As with the maximum frequency, fmax, its origin can be determined through careful experimentation and study. At some sites, the moment magnitude was 4.7 0.09, and the seismic moment was in the order of (107 0.19) 1023. (dyne.cm). The stress reduction is 76.3 11.5 (bars) and the source-radius is (850.0 38.0) (m). The ANFIS method predicted pretty accurately as the residuals were distributed uniformly near to the centrelines. The ANFIS approach made fairly accurate predictions, as evidenced by the fact that the residuals were distributed consistently close to the centerlines. The R2, RMSE, and MAE indices demonstrate that the ANFIS accuracy level is superior to that of the ANN.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks, brune based application, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system, source dimension, earthquake occurrence, prediction

DOI: 10.3233/JIFS-224423

Journal: Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, vol. 45, no. 2, pp. 3485-3500, 2023