Affiliations: School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing, China
Correspondence:
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Corresponding author. Lizhong Zhang, School of Economics and Management, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China. E-mail: bjfulunwen2021@126.com.
Abstract: With the continuous opening up of China’s dairy market to foreign countries, dairy products import volume continues to grow rapidly. The structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) was used in this article to analyze the impact of dairy product imports on China’s raw milk production from 1996 to 2017. It is found that, dairy product import volume has a positive impact on China’s raw milk production, and negative impact on the liquid dairy product; and mainly negative impacts on the cost control variables in the short term. The price of corn has a stronger impact on the raw milk production compared with that of the soybean meal prices and crude oil price; the impact of Domestic raw milk demand on raw milk production fluctuates frequently in the short term, and has a positive impact on the diary export. Based on this, this article believes that adjusting the milk industry policy, optimizing the dairy products import structure and the dairy cows’ source structure, and advocating scientific feeding can effectively alleviate the impact caused by dairy products import.
Keywords: Dairy import, raw milk production, shock effect, Structure vector autoregressive model (SVAR)
