Affiliations:
Department of Electrical Engineering, Shiraz University of Technology, Shiraz, Iran
Correspondence:
[*]
Corresponding author. Taher Niknam, Ph.D, Professor of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Shiraz University of Technology, Modars Blvd., Shiraz, P.O. 71555-313, Iran. Tel.: +98 711 7264121; Fax: +98 711 7353502; E-mails: khooban@sutech.ac.ir; mhkhoban@gmail.com.
Abstract: To simplify decision making of market participants, a careful and reliable electricity market price forecasting method is indispensable. Nevertheless, due to the Instability in market clearing prices (MCPs), it is rather tough to forecast MCPs accurately. Using probabilistic forecasting is a new solution to overcome the low accuracy of forecast. Transformation from traditional point forecasts to probabilistic interval forecasts is too important to model the uncertainties of forecasts. Thus the decision making activities of market participants are supported against uncertainties and risks effectively. In this paper a hybrid approach to achieve prediction intervals (PIs) of MCPs is proposed that modified dolphin echolocation optimization algorithm (MDEOA) is applied to estimate point forecasts, model uncertainties, and noise variance. This proposed electricity price probabilistic forecasting method is evaluated by a generalized and comprehensive framework. To test the proposed hybrid method, real price data from Ontario, New England, and, Australian electricity markets are used and effectiveness of the method is validated.
