An intelligent approach framework for decision-making risk analysis of Chinese hydropower corporations

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Shang, Bo^{; *} | Du, Xingyu

Affiliations: School of Business, Hohai University, China

Correspondence: [*] Corresponding author. Bo Shang, School of Business, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China. E-mail: boshang@hhu.edu.cn.

Abstract: An intelligent decision analytic framework for dealing with complex decision-making risk system is presented and Bayesian network (BN) approach is utilized to evaluate the influence of multilevel uncertainty in various risks (e.g., social, natural, economic, intracompany risks) on decision-making deviation of Chinese hydropower corporations. The technique of fuzzy probability is approached to calculate intricate parameters to the question of inference learning through the sensitivity and influence power analysis, the results of back inference show that there exists the risk transformation mechanism from external uncertain risks (e.g., social risks, ecological environment factors) to hydropower corporations’ internal uncertainties closely relating to economic uncertainties through strategic planning. The study concerning identification and intelligent analysis of uncertain risks in decision-making process illustrates the feasibility and validity of applying BN and its pragmatic implications on hydropower corporations strategic planning and guidance in operational management.

Keywords: Chinese hydropower corporations, decision makers, decision-making risks, Bayesian network, triangular fuzzy numbers

DOI: 10.3233/JIFS-191469

Journal: Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, vol. 39, no. 3, pp. 2935-2945, 2020