Affiliations: [a] Department of Aerospace Engineering, Aerospace Research Institute (Ministry of Science, Research and Technology), Tehran, Iran
| [b] Aerospace Research Institute (Ministry of Science, Research and Technology), Tehran, Iran
| [c] University of Tabriz, Faculty of Mathematical Science, Tabriz, Iran
Correspondence:
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Corresponding author. M. Nadjafi, PhD, Department of Aerospace Engineering, Aerospace Research Institute (Ministry of Science, Research and Technology), Tehran, Iran. E-mail: m.nadjafi@ari.ac.ir.
Abstract: The aim of this paper is introducing a method based on Fuzzy Time-To Failure (FTTF) to improve reliability analysis of complex engineering systems based on fault tree analysis. This method focuses on the quantitative part of fault trees (either static or dynamic) analysis and will compute failure probabilities. FTTF model is developed to estimate the reliability of system and solve aforetime methods problems. The presented FTTF model is able to figure out any construction consist of static and dynamic gates with FTTF distributions integrated on Fuzzy Monte Carlo Simulation (FMCS) techniques to analyzing Possibilistic functions associated with the fuzzy probability distributions for each basic event. Using fuzzy algorithm, gates FTTF are generated, and Top-event TTF evaluated. Some case studies are used to demonstrate the priority of this method in exact evaluation in compared with other solving methods (like: BN, Analytical solution, Markov chain and traditional fuzzy fault tree modeling), but has much less effort while having higher accuracy. Finally, this model is implemented in an Emergency Detection System (EDS) which is a useful system in aerospace and space applications.
Keywords: Reliability assessment, fault tree, fuzzy time-to-failure, fuzzy failure distribution, fuzzy monte carlo simulation, emergency detection system
