Fuzzy logic approach for future load curve forecasting based on similarity

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Senjyu, Tomonobu | Higa, Shuzo | Uezato, Katsumi

Affiliations: Department of Electric Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of the Ryukyus, 1 Senbaru, Nishihara-cho, Nakagami, Okinawa 903-0213, Japan. Tel.: +81 98 895 8686; Fax: +81 98 895 8708; E-mail: b985542@tec.u-ryukyu.ac.jp

Abstract: Load forecasting has always been an essential part of efficient power system planning and operations. In this paper, we propose the fuzzy logic approach for future load curve forecasting based on similarity. The proposed approach has the advantage of dealing with not only the nonlinear part of forecasted load curve but also with load curve forecasting without distinction of day type. In addition to the above mentioned advantages, the proposed method is useful in situations where accurate forecasting models are difficult to design. The fuzzy logic approach is used to modify the load curves on similar days in order to shape the next day load curve. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to actual load data of the Okinawa Electric Power Company in Japan.

Journal: Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 257-265, 1999