Affiliations: [a] Economics Department, Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France,
Tel.: +33 1 45 24 89 29; Fax: +33 1 45 24 78 81; Email:
robert.york@oecd.org
Correspondence:
[*]
Corresponding author.
Note: [1] This paper was initially prepared for the “OECD's Main Economic Indicators
30th Anniversary Meeting”, Château de la Muette, Paris, 16–17 October 1995.
The authors would like to acknowledge numerous comments and suggestions on
earlier drafts from members of the Economics Department and Statistics
Directorate of the OECD, and the valuable technical assistance provided by
Isabelle Duong. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors
and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of
its Member countries.
Abstract: National accounts data provide the most comprehensive overview available of
developments in national economies. They are of great interest to a wide range
of users of economic information who have needs which may differ in many
respects. However, since their interest generally stems from the likelihood that
they will make better decisions if they are well informed about economic
developments, they all have a strong interest in the accuracy of economic data.
This paper examines the reliability of preliminary quarterly national accounts
statistics. In particular, it considers the longer-term behaviour of the
provisional estimates to GDP growth and its main expenditure components for the
seven largest OECD countries, through an examination of the revisions to those
estimates. The results suggest that preliminary estimates for output growth have
not been statistically biased. The average size of revisions has been large
although smaller than those exhibited by the demand components of the quarterly
national accounts.
