Affiliations: [a] Department of Sociology and Anthropology, University
of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, MS 39406, USA | [b] Science Applications International Corporation, Las
Vegas, NV 89134, USA
Note: [1] An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1994 Annual Meeting of
the Southern Demographic Association, Atlanta, GA, USA. The authors are
grateful to Edward G. Stockwell and others for comments made at the session
in which the earlier version was presented.
Abstract: Population estimation methods designed for the state/provincial and county levels
generally exhibit high levels of accuracy. However, there are persistent
shortcomings that have not been resolved through methodological development. We
argue that at least some of these shortcomings would be better understood by
linking these methods with the substantive socio-economic and demographic
dynamics that clearly must be underlying the changes in population that the
methods are designed to measure. To illustrate our main point, we conduct a case
study of Indiana over two periods, 1970–1980 and 1980–1990. Indiana is selected
because a common population estimation method exhibits a common problem over the
two periods: its coefficients change. We link these changes to Indiana's
transition to a post-industrial economy and describe how this transition
operated through demographic dynamics that ultimately affected the estimation
model. The results of the case study not only suggest substantive explanations
for changes in the model but also the changes that are likely until the next
census – the working life of the model. In turn, these changes provide
information about anticipated changes in the model's coefficients which can be
used to modify them in order to maximize accuracy over the model's working life.
We conclude that while these results are limited in their application, they
suggest additional research along these lines would benefit population
estimation methods.
Keywords: Post-industrial transition, population estimates, Indiana
