Affiliations: National Energy Group Xinjiang Jilin Tai Hydropower Development Co., Ltd, Ili, Xinjiang, China
Correspondence:
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Corresponding author: Zhiliang Chen, National Energy Group Xinjiang Jilin Tai Hydropower Development Co., Ltd, Ili, Xinjiang 835199, China. Tel.: +86 18935769216; E-mail: 12098625@ceic.com.
Abstract: For the power generation prediction of traditional hydropower stations, most of them only use time series prediction and neglect to study the spatial topological relationship of hydropower stations in the river basin, so that it is difficult to fully explore the characteristic relationship of space power stations. In this paper, a research method for power generation prediction of hydropower in river basin hydropower stations based on multi-head attention map convolutional neural network is proposed. This method establishes a first-level node neighborhood feature map based on the spatial geographic distribution information of hydropower stations in the basin, and uses the method of graph convolution to carry out node feature mining and feature learning, so as to transform the power generation capacity evaluation problem of the hydropower station in the basin into the node prediction problem in the graph, which is different from the global normalization rule. the multi-head attention mechanism introduced further improves the information aggregation quality of the graph node, and uses the historical temperature, power generation, electricity price, unit status and other data of each hydropower station in the basin for training. The reasoning results show that the proposed method achieves higher accuracy than other schemes, and the power prediction method is conducive to the formulation of power plans of hydropower stations in the basin, and can also play a positive role in guiding the site selection of hydropower plants.
Keywords: Spatial topology, multi-head attention, graph convolutional neural networks, hydroelectric power stations, power prediction
