The provincial trend of population aging in China – based on population expansion forecast formula

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Duan, Lingyun^{a; b; c; d; e} | Liu, Ziyuan^{a; b; c; d; *} | Yu, Wen^{a; b; c; d; e; *} | Chen, Wei^{a; b; c; d} | Jin, Dongyan^{a; b; c; d} | Feng, Yao^{f; g} | Wang, Yu^{a; b; c; d} | Liu, Jiajia^{a; b; c; d} | Zhou, Han^{a; b; c; d} | Sun, Suhua^{a; b; c; d; e} | Dai, Ruixi^{a; b; c; d; e}

Affiliations: [a] Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China | [b] Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing, China | [c] Key Laboratory of Intelligent Agricultural Early Warning Technology and System, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China | [d] Beijing Engineering Research Center for Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning, Beijing, China | [e] Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China | [f] Bartlett School of Environment, Energy and Resources, University College London, London, UK | [g] Department of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China

Correspondence: [*] Corresponding authors: Ziyuan Liu and Wen Yu, Agricultural Information Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China. E-mail: liuziyuan@caas.cnandyuwen@caas.cn.

Abstract: China is one of the countries that have entered the stage of population aging. At present, the phenomenon of aging population has become a widespread concern of the whole society. Scientific and accurate prediction of aging population will help relevant departments to formulate specific countermeasures. This paper uses the Yearbook of China’s 1% population sampling survey in 2015 and the data published by the National Bureau of statistics. Based on the basic population prediction formula, the population prediction formula is established by using the index extrapolation method to predict the population aging development trend of provinces and cities in China from 2020 to 2050. The results show that: China’s aging degree will continue to increase, the size of the elderly population will continue to increase, 2020–2030 will be a period of rapid growth of the national population aging, after then the aging ratio will decline. The government should formulate security countermeasures for the elderly from various aspects as soon as possible and actively respond to aging the population.

Keywords: Population aging, population structure, forecasting, countermeasure

DOI: 10.3233/JCM-215630

Journal: Journal of Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 349-359, 2022