Affiliations: Faculty of Applied Mathematics and Control Processes, St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg, Russia | David Taylor Model Basin, Carderock Division, Naval Surface Warfare Center, West Bethesda, MD, USA
Note: [] Corresponding author: Arthur M. Reed, David Taylor Model Basin, Carderock Division, Naval Surface Warfare Center, West Bethesda, MD, USA. E-mail: arthur.reed@navy.mil
Abstract: The problem of wave climate description and modeling are considered on both a short-term and synoptic basis. The wave climate is considered as an ensemble of conditions of spatio-temporal wave fields characterized by frequency-directional spectra. Using an expanded set of wave and wind characteristics makes it possible to correctly introduce the concept of a wave weather “scenario” and to use it to evaluate vessel safety. The mathematical basis of the short-term wave description is by the representation of the stochastic processes by a generalized autoregressive model (ARM) and related models of periodically correlated random process. An ARM is used to generate space-time realizations of the wave surface of any short-term duration. Application of the aforesaid model takes into account the true stochastic process (lack of repetition in quasi-steady implementation of the process inherent in other models of wind waves). Ways of treating synoptic and seasonal variability of wave forecasts for a specific geographic region are also described. Here, for the first time using the general positions of stationary wave processes and non-stationary synoptic processes of average wave height variation are combined. In this case we have nested mathematical models of the same type.
Keywords: Autoregressive model (ARM), ocean waves modeling, wave weather “scenario”, synoptic weather model
