Estimating probability of capsize for operator guidance

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Sheinberg, Rubin^; | Stambaugh, Karl | Eisele, Andrew | Leadbetter, Ross

Affiliations: US Coast Guard ELC 023, USA | CDI Corporation, USA | University of North Carolina, NC, USA

Note: [] Corresponding author. E-mail: rubin.sheinberg@uscg.mil.

Abstract: Ships that are routinely called upon to perform demanding missions that often require operation in extreme weather environments will benefit from the development of heavy weather guidance (HWG). This guidance is intended to assist vessel operators in the selection of safe speed and heading in severe weather conditions, thereby reducing the probability of dynamic instabilities and potentially disastrous capsize events. A simplified method of estimating the encounter-dependent capsize probability based on the results of time domain simulations is outlined along with procedures to extend these estimates to fully characterize the time-dependency of the probability. Additionally, an alternative method of calculating capsize probability involving integration of the joint probability density function (JPDF) of wave height and length over a region of predicted critical waves.

Keywords: Dynamic stability, operator guidance, heavy weather, risk assessment, mission planning, capsize, probability

Journal: International Shipbuilding Progress, vol. 54, no. 4, pp. 191-205, 2007