Affiliations: School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China
Correspondence:
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Corresponding author: Jia-Hang Yuan, School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China. Tel.: +86 15810434877; E-mail:yuanjiahang@126.com
Abstract: For the decision-making problem of enterprise information
technology investment risk, based on existing research shortage, this paper
proposes a risk decision-making method based on cloud model,
Mahalanobis-Taguchi system and grey cumulative prospect theory with the
consideration of the fuzziness of evaluating language and subjective risk
attitude of decision makers. The method results in the ``quantitative to
qualitative'' transformation of risk evaluation in information technology
investment by cloud model and constructs interval numbers decision matrices
according to the ``3En'' principle. An m-dimensional interval numbers
decision vector is regarded as super cuboids in m-dimensional attributes
space, using two-level orthogonal experiment to arrange points uniformly and
dispersedly. The numbers of points are assured by testing numbers of
two-level orthogonal arrays and these points compose of distribution points
set to stand for decision-making project. In order to eliminate the
influence of correlation among indices, Mahalanobis distance is used to
calculate the distance from each investment program to ideal programs. Since
the decision-maker's attitude can affect the decision result when the
investment decision-making in practice, the paper defines the grey
correlation coefficient and the prospect value function based on Mahalanobis
distance, and calculates the comprehensive prospect value of each program
and finds the optimal one. Finally, an example application proves that the
method is a feasible and effective method of decision-making. Compared with
other methods, the result is much more realistic and superior.
