Robust Optimization for Strategic Energy Planning

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Moret, Stefano^{1; *} | Bierlaire, Michel² | Maréchal, François¹

Affiliations: [1] Industrial Process and Energy Systems Engineering Group (IPESE). E-mail: stefano.moret@epfl.ch | [2] Transport and Mobility Laboratory, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland

Correspondence: [*] Corresponding author.

Abstract: Long-term planning for energy systems is often based on deterministic economic optimization and forecasts of fuel prices. When fuel price evolution is underestimated, the consequence is a low penetration of renewables and more efficient technologies in favour of fossil alternatives. This work aims at overcoming this issue by assessing the impact of uncertainty on energy planning decisions. A characterization of uncertainty in energy systems decision-making is performed. Robust optimization is then applied to a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming problem, representing the typical trade-offs in energy planning. It is shown that in the uncertain domain investing in more efficient and cleaner technologies can be economically optimal.

Keywords: energy planning, robust optimization, uncertainty characterization, Mixed-Integer Linear Programming

Journal: Informatica, vol. 27, no. 3, pp. 625-648, 2016