Estimating utilities from actual decisions in safety evaluation*

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Barish, Norman N.^a; | Ehrenfeld, Sylvain^b

Affiliations: [a] New York University, New York, U.S.A. | [b] Baruch College, City University of New York, New York, U.S.A.

Note: [*] Partial support for some aspects of the work reported in this paper was provided under Office of Naval Research Contract N 00014-67-A-0467-0028 with New York University.

Abstract: This paper explores approaches for estimating utilities as revealed by past decisions. Some conceptual models are presented which have the potential for improving decision making in the evaluation of product or system safety by focusing on the use of the evaluator's past safety evaluations to measure his attitudes towards risk and uncertainty. These models provide a framework for empirically determining an evaluator's utility functions from his past decisions and reveal relationships among relevant elements in the evaluation process.

Keywords: Utilities, decision making, risk, uncertainty, safety evaluation, revealed preferences, attitude measurement, utility estimation

DOI: 10.3233/HSM-1983-4207

Journal: Human Systems Management, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 123-127, 1983