Affiliations: Civil Engineering Department, Kharazmi University, Tehran | Faculty of Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran | Environmental Engineering Expert, Tarbiat Moallem University, Tehran | Faculty of Computer and Statistics, Shahid Beheshdi University, Tehran | Water and Environment Consultant, Vancouver, Canada
Abstract: The copious prevalence of water deficiency and the geographical
location of Iran (arid and semi-arid zone) make acquiring enough accurate data
of water quantity and quality for water management vital. However, merely
having sufficient data without proper interpretation is rather worthless too
when it comes to effective water management and thus, there are several
techniques for analyzing water quantity and quality. In this work, statistical
method was used to analyze the data collected from the catchment area under
study i.e. Jajrud River, located in the North West of Tehran Province. The
multivariate time series method was employed to analyze water quality
parameters in the river. Box-Jenkins time series model was also applied to the
factor data resulted from the Multivariate time series. The results showed that
the water quality parameters are not independent having a correlation
coefficient larger than 0.3. The study also shows that ground water is the
first effective factor, which causes increasing total dissolved solid (TDS) in
the river. Domestic waste water pollution is the second-most important factor.
Agricultural fertilizers and industrial waste may rank as the third and fourth
pollution factors, respectively. Prediction of factor data using Box-Jenkins
model was accurate and suitable which may be applicable to other place to model
the factors data instead of many water quality parameters.
Keywords: Water quality, Jajrud river, multivariate statistical technique, principal analysis, Box-Jenkins model
