Modelling Unusual Behaviour of Rainfall Using Truncated GEV Distribution in a Mixture Framework

Article type: Research Article

Authors: Jagtap, R.S.^{; *} | Naik-Nimbalkar, U.V.^a

Affiliations: Central Water and Power Research Station, Khadakwasla, Pune – 411024, India | [a] Department of Statistics & Centre for Advanced Studies in Statistics, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune – 411007, India

Correspondence: [*] Corresponding Author. rsj.wadi@gmail.com

Abstract: A truncated generalised extreme value (GEV) distribution in a mixture framework is proposed for the analysis of abnormal rare events in heterogeneous data representing environmental phenomena. The proposed extremal mixture model produced a better understanding of the extremal rainfall behaviour in the Mula-Mutha-Bhima subbasin in India. It gave some realistic extrapolation of quantiles corresponding to a very low probability of exceedance useful in water resources planning and design of civil infrastructure. The proposed model could be useful for the class of problems characterising extreme events and heterogeneity in fields like hydrology, environment and so on.

Keywords: Extreme values, heterogeneity, maximum likelihood estimate, mixture modelling, quantile, truncated GEV distribution

DOI: 10.3233/AJW210005

Journal: Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 31-41, 2021